TAM / SAM / SOM

TAM — $60B+

Global supplier commercial spend on HoReCa beverage channel: marketing + trade activation + on-premise sales force. (Derived range $42–65B from public 10-K disclosures — we anchor on $60B+ as the working headline; full math below.)

SAM — $5–8B

Digital + activation budgets addressable in 5 target markets: US, UK, EU-5, Canada, Australia.

SOM — $150M (Year 3)

3% penetration of target venues × $5,400 annual ARPU.

How we derived TAM — the 5-step chain

Step 1. Global foodservice market = $3.36T (Euromonitor 2026).

Step 2. Beverage share of HoReCa check ≈ 22% → ~$740B consumer-level → $325B wholesale to brands (after ~2.3× venue markup; Knowledge Sourcing Intelligence — Global HoReCa Beverage Market 2025 independently confirms the $325.33B wholesale anchor).

Step 3. Beverage brands allocate 13–20% of HoReCa wholesale revenue to commercial spend (marketing + trade + sales force). Range calibrated against FY24 10-K disclosures of top-15 listed beverage holdcos:

• Heineken — marketing + selling = 9.8% net revenue
• AB InBev — sales + marketing = 12% net revenue
• Pernod Ricard — A&P = 16% net sales
• Campari — A&P = 16.7% net sales
• Diageo — marketing investment = 18.2% net sales
• Monster — A&P + promotional allowances = ~22.5% gross billings (full-transparency benchmark)

$325B × 13–20% = $42–65B → anchored at $60B+ TAM (toward the upper end of the calculated range).

Step 4. SAM = target markets share of global HoReCa beverage wholesale, then digital slice:

• Target markets ≈ 38% of global wholesale (US 13% + UK 7% + Canada 3.4% + Australia 2.5% + EU-5 ~12%)
• Digital / measurable activation slice ≈ 35% of supplier on-premise spend

$60B × 38% × 35% = ~$8B SAM.

Excluded from SAM: pouring rights long-term contracts, brand-owned coolers/equipment, fixed field-sales infrastructure, retail trade promotion (separate $200B+ pool, not addressable).

Step 5. SOM at Year 3 — bottom-up from pilot data:

• ~1M target independent venues + small chains across 5 geographies
• 3% penetration in 3 years = 30,000 active venues
• Pilot-validated engagement: 30K monthly views per venue × $15 CPM (base tier) × 12 months = $5,400 per venue per year
• Single-brand-per-venue by design (limited supply maintains pricing power)

30,000 × $5,400 = $162M → $150M SOM.

Why now — the channel is digitizing fast

The $60B+ pool is structurally offline. Pouring rights, slotting, in-venue activation, POS materials, distributor co-op — almost entirely brand-by-brand, restaurant-by-restaurant negotiation.

The shift has started:

• Coca-Cola — 65% of broader media spend already digital
• AB InBev — 75% of revenue now flows through BEES B2B platform (FY24)
• Diageo (FY24 CEO commentary) — "on-trade regained priority as discovery channel for premium spirits"
• IWSR (2025) — launched On-Trade Value product, calls the channel "notoriously opaque" — the structural problem we solve

Restaurant Commerce Media is the digital wrapper for that $60B+ pool. Every dollar that shifts from a static POS sticker to a measurable Instagram impression is RCM. That's the slice we capture.

Why non-alcoholic beverage is our primary category

Defensibility. "16K beverage brands in US" includes microbreweries and craft ciders — long tail we can't reach. "1,500+ non-alc brands with trade budgets" is tight, defensible, verifiable via brand-team org charts.

Compliance moat. Alcohol on-premise = tied-house laws, TTB §6.98, state-level ABC regulations. Non-alc = standard commercial contract law. Scale across 50 states without regulatory expansion cost. Alcohol stays on Phase 2 roadmap.

2026 VC zeitgeist. Liquid Death $1.4B valuation. Poppi → PepsiCo $1.95B exit. Olipop, Celsius ($10B+ public). 20% of US adults plan dry January 2026 — 26% among 18–34.

Brand fragmentation — why "one CMO" is wrong

Inside Coca-Cola Czechia / globally, 25+ independent brand teams each run their own trade budgets. Brand manager of Sprite doesn't ask CMO for permission to run a restaurant promo. Same dynamic at PepsiCo, Keurig Dr Pepper, Nestlé, Danone.

We sell at the brand-manager layer, not C-suite. That's 25+ separate buying decisions per quarter inside Coca-Cola alone.

Coca-Cola — first portfolio (US-relevant)

Core soda: Coca-Cola · Coca-Cola Zero · Diet Coke · Sprite · Fanta · Dr Pepper (distribution partnership)

Water & hydration: Dasani · Smartwater · Vitaminwater · Topo Chico · BodyArmor

Coffee & tea: Costa Coffee · Gold Peak · Honest Tea · Fuze Tea

Juice: Minute Maid · Simply · Fairlife

Energy & sports: Monster (partnership) · Powerade · Simply Pop (prebiotic, 2025)

Alcohol (Phase 2): Topo Chico Hard Seltzer · Jack Daniel's RTD · Simply Spiked

CPG ad spend benchmarks

Major CPG / beverage holdcos run multi-billion-dollar marketing budgets, ~65% of which is now digital:

• Coca-Cola Company — $4–4.7B annual marketing
• PepsiCo — $3.0–3.7B annual marketing
• AB InBev — ~$6.8B (2022)
• Diageo — ~$3.1B (2022)
• Red Bull — ~€1.6B (2020)
• DoorDash — $1.88B sales & marketing (2023)

Phase 2/3 expansion (Series A+)

Phase 2 (Series A, 2027): Add alcohol portfolio brands. Hire compliance legal. Start in 3 beer-friendly states (CO, CA, NY).

Phase 3 (Series B, 2028): Add adjacent CPG categories (snacks, dairy, coffee) following the same brand-fragmentation playbook.

TAM expands across phases: $60B+ (current scope: global beverage HoReCa trade) → $100B+ (all on-premise beverage activation incl. spirits long-term contracts) → $200B+ (broader CPG-to-restaurant pool incl. food categories).

Restaurant SMB demand (the supply side)

The base is huge: ~23.1M food-service establishments globally; ~2M in EU; >1M in US.

Already on social, mostly DIY: 82% of restaurants use social media for marketing; only ~10% hire a third party. Agency pricing $500–$5,000/mo prices most independents out.

Time cost of DIY: ~4–6 hours/week per owner. 36% post daily, 41% post 1–3×/week. Hours of weekly cost.

Implication: Tens of millions of venues active on social but priced out of professional help. This is the supply we aggregate — then monetize through the brand layer above.

Supplementary: beverage & delivery channel context (with inline citations)

Retained for DD source tracing — see CPG ad spend benchmarks section above for the canonical version.

Major beverage companies and delivery platforms allocate multi-billion-dollar budgets to digital marketing. For example, Coca-Cola spends on the order of $4–4.7B per year on advertisinginvestopedia.com, PepsiCo $3.0–3.7Binvestopedia.com, AB InBev ~$6.8B (2022)movendi.ngo, Diageo ~$3.1B (2022)movendi.ngo, and Red Bull ~€1.6B (2020)economictimes.indiatimes.com. Delivery services also spend heavily: DoorDash’s sales & marketing costs were about $1.88B in 2023backlinko.com (Delivery Hero’s figures are comparable). Importantly, these giants are shifting to digital – Coca-Cola reports ~65% of its media budget is now digitalinvestors.coca-colacompany.com, and similarly high ratios are seen across the sector.

• Channel Focus: The lion’s share goes to social, content and influencer marketing. Coke and Pepsi run massive campaigns on TikTok/Instagram and with creators: e.g. Coca-Cola’s #ShareTheMagic TikTok campaign generated ~11.9 billion viewsinfluencity.com, and Pepsi’s 2023 India campaign (with Bollywood influencer tie-ins) hit 100M+ viewsinfluencity.com. Red Bull and beer brands emphasize branded content and event sponsorships, while spirits companies (Diageo, AB InBev) increasingly use data-driven online ads and influencer endorsements. Delivery apps mirror this approach: DoorDash, for instance, partnered with TikTok food and lifestyle creators (13 of its top 20 posts in 2023 were TikTok-driven contentcreatoriq.com) and bolsters paid ads on Facebook/Google to drive app orders.
• Marketing to Partners: Both beverage and delivery companies support their restaurant partners through co-marketing. Delivery networks explicitly build in marketing help: DoorDash’s tiered Merchant Plans include enhanced visibility (e.g. DashPass promotions) and marketing perksmerchants.doordash.com, and Delivery Hero ran global campaigns during COVID to “focus marketing efforts to support local restaurants”deliveryhero.com. Beverage suppliers traditionally co-brand with restaurants via menu deals and point-of-sale promotions; some are now piloting online tools to extend this support (for example, beverage vendors have tested social-media services for thousands of partner eateries).

Methodology — TAM / SAM / SOM derivation

TAM is a derived estimate built bottom-up from public anchors: (1) Knowledge Sourcing Intelligence Global HoReCa Beverage Market 2025 ($325B wholesale anchor); (2) weighted commercial intensity ratio 13–20% of revenue derived from FY24 10-K disclosures of Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, AB InBev, Heineken, Carlsberg, Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Brown-Forman, Constellation Brands, Monster, Campari, Rémy Cointreau, Molson Coors, Keurig Dr Pepper. SAM applies (a) target market share = 38% of global HoReCa wholesale (US 13% + UK 7% + Canada 3.4% + Australia 2.5% + EU-5 ~12%) and (b) addressable digital/measurable activation slice ~35% of supplier on-premise spend (excluding pouring rights long-term contracts, brand-owned equipment, fixed field-sales infrastructure). SOM is HeroContent estimate based on bottom-up venue counts × pilot-validated engagement (30K monthly views per venue × $15 CPM base tier × 12 months = $5,400 annual ARPU per active venue).

Sources (clickable)

1. Euromonitor — World Market for Consumer Foodservice 2025: $3.36T global. euromonitor.com
2. Knowledge Sourcing Intelligence — Global HoReCa Beverage Market 2025: $325B wholesale. knowledge-sourcing.com
3. WARC — Retail Media Radar Q1 2025: $178B global retail media market. warc.com
4. Coca-Cola Company — FY2025 Earnings + CAGNY 2025 Presentation: $4B+ annual marketing. investors.coca-colacompany.com
5. Coca-Cola Investor Relations — Growth Strategy page: digital transformation priority. coca-colacompany.com/growth-strategy
6. Statista — Coca-Cola advertising spending worldwide 2024: $4B+. statista.com
7. Toast — Restaurant Social Media Data Study 2024: 82% of restaurants use social, 62% of consumers check social before dining. pos.toasttab.com
8. Deloitte Digital — Social Media and Restaurant Marketing 2025: 90% say social is important, 9.9% avg revenue increase. deloittedigital.com
9. Heineken N.V. — Annual Report 2024: marketing + selling increased €0.3B (double-digit organic). theheinekencompany.com
10. Diageo — Annual Report 2024: marketing investment ~18% of net sales. diageo.com/annual-report-2024
11. AB InBev — Annual Report 2024: 75% of revenue through BEES B2B platform. ab-inbev.com
12. Research and Markets — HORECA Beverage Market Forecasts 2025–2030: CAGR 3.69%. researchandmarkets.com